July 2025 Island Estate Report | Key West Real Estate Market Update

Key West Residential Market Update — July 2025

🔄 Year-Over-Year Snapshot (Jan–Jun 2025 vs. 2024)

| Metric | 2025 YTD | 2024 YTD | % Change | |---|---|---|---| | Absorption Rate | 11.14 | 9.99 | +11.5% | | Avg. List Price (Actives) | $1,765,775 | $1,816,840 | -2.8% | | Median List Price | $1,349,000 | $1,312,500 | +2.8% | | Avg. Sale Price | $1,459,461 | $1,336,475 | +9.2% | | Median Sale Price | $1,100,000 | $995,000 | +10.6% | | Average Days on Market | 78 | 73 | +6.9% | | Median Days on Market | 54 | 54 | No Change |

Key Observations

• Absorption Rate & Inventory: The absorption rate rose to 11.14 months, up 11.5% YoY, showing a slower market with more inventory sitting longer before selling. Active listings are near a 2-year high, with a steady climb in inventory since mid-2024.
• Days on Market (DOM): Properties are sitting longer on average (up to 78 days), though the median remains steady at 54 days, indicating a bifurcated market — the best-priced or best-located homes are still moving quickly, while others linger.
• Sale-to-List Ratio Decline: The sold-to-original-list ratio has been declining monthly since early 2025, now trending closer to 88–89%, down from over 92% a year ago. Buyers are negotiating more aggressively.

📉 June 2025 vs. June 2024 — Monthly Check-In

| Metric | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | % Change | |---|---|---|---| | Average Sale Price | $1,114,488 | $1,433,742 | -22.3% | | Median Sale Price | $837,500 | $995,000 | -15.8% | | DOM (Avg / Median) | 89 / 75 | 66 / 52 | +34.9% / +44.2% |

June 2025 marks a cooling off from the earlier price highs in Q1–Q2 2025. This decline is likely seasonal, but also reflects buyer sensitivity to pricing and broader economic caution.

Short-Term Outlook (Next 3–6 Months)

• Expect continued softening in the ultra-luxury segment as excess inventory builds.
• Well-priced, turnkey properties in Old Town, Casa Marina, and Truman Annex will remain in demand.
• Price reductions and longer DOM will become more common, and negotiation leverage is swinging slightly back to buyers.
• The summer lull may intensify this dynamic, especially if mortgage rates remain high or macro sentiment softens.

Long-Term Outlook (6–12 Months)

• If absorption continues to climb, we may see more motivated sellers, especially investors and second-home owners.
• However, limited land, insurance restrictions, and tight local zoning in Key West will continue to underpin values over time.
• Watch for Q4 rebound activity, especially if there's improvement in economic outlook or interest rates.

Final Takeaway

The Key West market remains fundamentally strong, but momentum is shifting. Rising inventory, slower absorption, and softer list-to-sale ratios suggest a more balanced market ahead — one where pricing strategy and property condition matter more than ever.

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Find Out Exactly How to Price YOUR Home in This Market

While the Key West market remains fundamentally strong, momentum is shifting and buyers can afford to be more selective. Contact Damian Vantriglia today for a free evaluation and consultation including detailed property analysis and buyer prospectus.